You're the project manager on a software project that is planning out various approaches to technical work. There's a 20% chance that a component you are going to license will be dif cult to integrate and cost $3000 in rework and delays. There's also a 40% chance that the component will save $10,000 in time and effort that would have been used to build the component from scratch. What's the EMV for these two possibilities?
Correct Answer: B
The expected monetary value (or EMV) of the problems integrating the component is the probability (20%) times the cost ($3,000), but don't forget that since it's a risk, that number should be negative. So its EMV is 20% x $3,000 = -$600. The savings from not having to build the component from scratch is an opportunity. It has an EMV of 40% x $10,000 = $4,000. Add them up and you get -$600 + $4,000 = $3,400.