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You are managing a software engineering project, when two team members come to you with a conflict. The lead developer has identified an important project risk: you have a subcontractor that may not deliver on time. The team estimates that there is a 40% chance that the subcontractor will fail to deliver. If that happens, it will cost an additional $15,250 to pay your engineers to rewrite the work, and the delay will cost the company $20,000 in lost business. Another team member points out an opportunity to save money an another area to offset the risk: if an existing component can be adapted, it will save the project $4,500 in engineering costs. There is a 65% probability that the team can take advantage of that opportunity. What is the expected monetary value (EMV) of these two things?
Correct Answer: C
To calculate the expected monetary value (EMV) of a set of risks and opportunities, multiply each probability by its total cost and add them together. In this question, the cost of the risk is -$15,250 + -$20,000 = -$35,250, so its EMV is 40% x -$35,250 = -$14,100. The value of the opportunity is $4,500 and its probability is 65%, so its EMV is 65% x $4,500 = $2,925. So the total EMV for the two is -$14,100 + $2,925 = -$11,175. opportunity is positive.