When a project comprises multiple tasks, each with varying probable durations, determining the overall project's expected duration necessitates an analytical approach that accounts for this variability. Monte Carlo simulation is a robust technique that performs this function effectively. By running numerous simulations, it models the probability of different outcomes in processes that involve random variables, such as task durations. This method provides a comprehensive view of possible project completion times and their associated probabilities, enabling more informed decision-making.
PMI Risk Management Study Guide References:
The PMI-RMP Exam Preparation Study Guide emphasizes the utility of Monte Carlo simulations in project scheduling, stating that they "allow project managers to assess the impact of risk and uncertainty on project timelines by simulating various scenarios and their probabilities."