In the scenario provided, the bakery chain's statistical model predicts that daily sales should have an inverse relationship with rainy days, meaning that on rainy days, sales are generally expected to be lower. However, if an auditor notices that on a rainy day, total sales are greater than expected when compared to the cost of ingredients used, this could indicate potential employee theft of food. The reasoning is that if sales are unusually high despite weather conditions that typically depress sales, it may be that the reported sales are inflated or that ingredients are being used without corresponding sales being recorded, which could suggest theft.
IIA Reference:
IIA Standard 1220: Due Professional Care implies that auditors should consider the likelihood of significant errors, fraud, or noncompliance when assessing risks and performing audit procedures. Unusual patterns or deviations from expected results, as seen in this scenario, should raise red flags for potential fraudulent activity, such as theft.