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There are two bonds in a portfolio, each with a marketvalue of $50m. The probability of default of the two bonds over a one year horizon are 0.03 and 0.08 respectively. If the default correlation is zero, what is the one year expected loss on this portfolio?
Correct Answer: C
Explanation The probabilities of default of the two bonds are independent (as indicated by a zero default correlation). The various possible states of the portfolio are as follows: First bond defaults, and the second does not: Probability * Loss = 0.03*0.92* $50m = $1.38m Second bond defaults, and the first does not: Probability * Loss = 0.97*0.08 * $50m = $3.88m Both bonds default: Probability * Loss = 0.03*0.08 * $100m = $0.24m Thus total expected loss on this portfolio = $5.5m. Since recovery rates are not provided, those should be assumed to be zero. There is an easier way to solve this as well: default correlation does not affect expected losses, but their volatility. You can calculate the expected losses of the two bonds and add them up, ie, $50m*0.03+ $50m *0.08 = $5.5m