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A venture capital investment is expected to yield of payoff of $100 million in five years if it survives. The initial cost is $20 million and the appropriate discount rate is 20%. What is the average annual probability of failure that makes the investment's NPV = 0? In other words, what is the maximum annual average probability of failure before the investment is not acceptable?
Correct Answer: A
The NPV is equal to zero when: Discounted expected payoff = Initial cost [(1 - Average prob)5 $100 million] / (1.20)5 = $20 million Average annual probability = 0.1303, or 13%