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The staff of a company is 45% female. The probability of a female requesting a sick leave is 12% versus 10% for males. An individual who requested a sick leave was randomly selected from the staff of this company. The probability that this individual is a female would be closest to:
Correct Answer: B
Use Bayes' formula to compute this probability. Assume the following events: F: individual is a female, P(F) = 0.45 M: individual is a male, P(M) = 0.55) S: individual requests a sick leave, P(S|F) = 0.12 and P(S|M) = 0.10. P(F|S) = [P(S|F) x P(F)] / [P(S|F) x P(F) + P(S|M) x P(M)] = 0.495.